中文摘要：

为了探索构建城市管道系统安全及可靠性风险管理体系,基于FMECA,FTA＆ETA及FRACAS等技术,建立涵盖故障模式辨识、影响及危害度分析、纠正措施执行等内容,且遵循闭环管理原则的科学、完整的风险闭环管理模式。针对城市管道安全及可靠性研究存在的局限性,引入FCE改进的FMECA和模糊灰关联FTA等定量计算方法,克服统计信息匮乏、数据模糊等瓶颈。研究结果表明：基于改进＂3F＂一体化技术的系统风险闭环管理体系契合城市管道风险管控需求,为多态、多要素耦合、不确定性复杂系统整体风险分析研究提供新思路。

英文摘要：

In order to explore the construction of risk management system for safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,a scientific and complete risk closed- loop management mode,which covers the contents of failure mode identification,impact and criticality analysis,corrective action implementation,etc.,and follows the closed- loop management principle was established based on the technologies of FMECA,FTA ETA and FRACAS. Aiming at the limitation existed in the research about the safety and reliability of urban pipeline system,the quantitative calculation methods including the improved FMECA by FCE,the fuzzy grey relational FTA and so on were introduced to overcome the bottleneck such as lacking of statistical information and the fuzzy data. The results showed that the systematic rick closed- loop management system based on improved ＂ 3F＂ integration technology agrees with the demand of risk control on urban pipeline,and it provides a new idea for the study on the overall risk analysis of complex system with multi- state,multi- factor coupling and uncertainty.