中文摘要：

能源是人类赖以生存的物质基础,是国家和社会发展的主要支柱,能源过度消耗会带来环境污染,如何控制污染、发展低碳经济已成为世界关注的主要问题。文章主要基于灰色系统的区间预测理论,以2020年的减排目标为减排模型设计标准,结合价格弹性理论,分析碳税对35个行业带来的影响。研究发现,约23%的行业受碳税影响显著;约32%的行业对碳税无敏感性。文章认为应对高能耗行业可以采用定额税率,对低能源消耗行业可采用累进税率模式。为保证企业的健康、持续的发展,也应适当建立税收补偿机制,鼓励减排行为。

英文摘要：

Energy is one of the most important bases for human survival and a main pillar for the state and society to develop. The excessive energy consumption leads to environmental pollution, and low to control pollution and develop low-carbon economy has become the global major concern. Based on the interval forecasting theory of grey system, this paper takes the emission reduc- tion target in 2020 as a standard of designing emission reduction model, and uses price elastic theory to analyze the impact of car- bon tax on 35 industries. The research result shows that about 23% of the industries are obviously affected by carbon tax, and that about 32% of the industries are insensitive to carbon tax. The paper also holds that a fixed carbon tax rate be imposed on the in- dustries with high energy consumption, and that a progressive tax rate be executed for the low-energy consumption industries. In order to guarantee the enterprises＇ healthy and sustainable development, an appropriate tax compensation mechanism should be constructed to encourage emission reduction.