中文摘要：

利用普洱市探空资料、CIND3830CC新一代天气雷达资料、地面观测资料，对2004--2011年滇南普洱、西双版纳冰雹天气过程进行统计分析，总结出冰雹4个预报指标：（1）当单体回波满足冰雹云的初始特征和发展阶段特征时，可预报未来出现冰雹的可能较大，预报提前60min以内；（2）当回波的组合反射率≥55dBz、宽度≥12．0km、梯度≥15dBz·km、H45dHz≥7．5km、2—5月H45dHz-H0≥3．1km且H45№H-20≥-0．5km、6—8月H45dHz-H0≥2．0km且H45dHz-H20≥-1．2km、VIL≥30kg·m、DVIL≥3．0g·m-3时，预报有冰雹发生，预报提前12～102rain；（3）当回波具有弱切变特征、45dBz回波顶高≥7．5km、25月H45dHz-H0≥3．1km且H45dHz-H20≥-0．5km、6-8月H45dHz-H-≥2．0km且H45dHz-Hq，≥-1．2km时，可预报有冰雹出现，预报提前18～54min；（4）若除去飑线和下击暴流回波，当回波的VIL≥30kg·m-2、DIV≥3．0g·m-3时，可预报有冰雹出现，预报提前12～54min。此外，还总结了冰雹云的生命期特征等，并利用2012年发生的冰雹天气过程检验了预报指标。

英文摘要：

Based on the air-sounding data, the CIND3830-CC CINRAD data and surface observation data, the hail event processes seen in Puer and Xishuangbanna during 2004--2011 are analyzed. The results show that： （1） hail can be forecasted 60 rain in advance when initial and developing features of hail-cloud appear in the radar echo images. （2） Hail can be forecasted 12 to 102 rain earlier before the event occurs, if echo composite reflectivity 55 dBz, width 12.0 km, gradient 15 dBz km 1, H4, dBz 7. 5 km, H4sdsz--Ho 3.1 km and H4saBz--H-2o --0. 5 km during February--May, H4dBz--H0 2. 0 km and H4 dBz--H-20 --1. 2 km, VIL 30 kg m 2, Dvn. 3.0 g m-a during June--August. （3） If the echo shows the features of weak shear, echo top in 45 dBz7.5 km, H4sdSz Ho3.1 km and H45dBz--H z0 --0.5 km during February--May, Ha.dsz--Ho 2. 0 km and H4sds--H-co --1. 2 km during June- August, hail can be forecasted with 18--54 min in advance. （4） In addition to squall line and downburst, hail can be forecasted 12--54 min earlier if VILe30 kg m-2, Dvn.3.0 g m-3. Besides, this paper summarizes the characteristics of hail-cloud lifetime, and tests forecast indice by using the hail process in 2012.