中文摘要：

基于我国棉花产业链的发展现状,对影响棉花供需平衡的基本因素包括人口增加、GDP增长、原材料价格波动、纺织品出口量变化、棉花生产量和进口量、棉花替代品等进行分析,认为在市场总需求既定的情况下,进口棉花配额是影响棉花供需平衡的最主要因素.构建了进口配额调控模型用于调解我国短期内的棉花供需平衡问题,并提出应构建可保证棉花产业链安全的长效机制,且给出了具体措施.

英文摘要：

Based on current situation of cotton supply chain in China,the factors which can influence the balance of supply and demand are discussed,including the increasing of population and GDP,fluctuation of raw material,textile products export,cotton production and import and chemical fiber.It is pointed out that cotton import quota is the main factor that can influence the balance of supply and demand on the stable demand.Then the regulation model of import quota is set up to relieve the problem of supply and demand in the short run.Also,the specific measures to form an effective system in the long run are proposed.