中文摘要：

在利用回归分析对大坝形变进行建模时,回归方程常因为自变量间的多重共线性而产生病态问题,从而不能建立准确的模型。提出利用独立分量回归（ICR）建立大坝形变模型,并确定大坝形变的物理响应。模拟实验表明：ICR可以有效地解决病态问题,建立一个可靠的回归模型。将ICR用于中国湖南省的五强溪大坝建模,结果表明：ICR不仅可以建立准确的坝体形变模型,而且通过其提取的独立分量可以确定大坝变形影响因素。

英文摘要：

In the application of regression analysis method to model dam deformation, the ill-condition problem occurred in coefficient matrix always prevents an accurate modeling mainly due to the multicollinearity of the variables. Independent component regression （ICR） was proposed to model the dam deformation and identify the physical origins of the deformation. Simulation experiment shows that ICR can successfully resolve the problem of ill-condition and produce a reliable deformation model. After that, the method is applied to model the deformation of the Wuqiangxi Dam in Hunan province, China. The result shows that ICR can not only accurately model the deformation of the dam, but also help to identify the physical factors that affect the deformation through the extracted independent components.