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中文摘要：
运用动态均衡分析方法。建立农村剩余劳动力转移搜寻模型分析了影响农村劳动力转移的关键性因素，并采用2003—2006年国家农村固定观察点数据，建立Probit模型进行了实证分析。研究发现，外出从业收入与费用、农业产出与投入、转移者个性特征等因素对农村劳动力转移有显著性影响。由此可见，经济因素是影响我国农村劳动力转移的核心因素。要应对“民工荒”。关键是要满足农民工的物质需求，给予农民工实实在在的经济利益。该研究对于揭示“民工荒”的成因，保持农村剩余劳动力有序、平稳、持续地向城镇转移，具有一定的参考价值。
英文摘要：
Based on job search model, the paper sets up a dynamic model to analyze the decision-making mechanism and infection factor of rural labor migration. Then based on the data collected from NRFOP （national rural fixed observation point） over the period of 2003-2006, we establish Probit model to analyze the results of the theoretical model. This paper finds that migrant workers＇ income and expenses in cities, productions and investment in agriculture have a significant effect on rural labor migration. This indicates that, at present, the material needs are core elements of the employment of migrant workers in cities. Therefore, to deal with＂labor shortage＂, the key is to meet the material needs of migrant workers. The research is important in helping reveal the causes of the ＂labor shortage＂ and maintain an orderly, smooth and continuous migration of the rural labor force to cities.
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