中文摘要：

利用碧塔海流域1955—2011年期间5个变化阶段的航拍数据、卫星影像数据编制了景观类型图，并通过叠图分析统计获取了所有景观类型在5个变化阶段的面积转移矩阵。以这些数据为基础，对Markov模型的适用性进行了验证，判别了各变化阶段变化模式的同一性，并利用该模型进行了同本底预测，分析了研究区各变化阶段景观变化的主要趋势。引入景观类型转入及转出贡献率和景观类型保留率，进一步细化碧塔海流域景观动态变化过程的分析。结果表明，碧塔海流域1955～2011年景观变化整体平缓，其间略有微小波动，可大致分为2个时期，20世纪90年代旅游开发以前以自然演替为主，之后人为干扰明显增强，景观上的主要变化是修建了公路，其湖泊水域面积常年不变，湖岸沼泽及草甸基本无变化，生态环境处于良好状态。结合景观类型转入及转出贡献率和景观类型保留率的Markov模型能较好地描述碧塔海流域景观动态，能有效发现景观变化过程，该方法是可行的。

英文摘要：

Aerial images and satellite images of Bitahai watershed in five different periods from 1955 to 2011 were used to conduct a landscape dynamic analysis. Area transition matrixes of these periods were calculated. On this basis, Markovian compatibility was proven, identities of the change mode of the periods were tested, and the change trend during the periods were analyzed. Conversion-in rate, conversion-out rate and preserving ratio of land- scape types were introduced to refined the dynamic change process. It was found that the landscape of Bitahai wa- tershed changes little from 1955 to 2011, and it can be divided into two stages： it was dominated by natural suc- cession before tourism development during 90＇ s and human disturbance increased significantly afterwards due to roads building, while little changes in area of lake, swamp and meadows. Markov model with conversion-in rate, conversion-out rate and preserving ratio of landscape types describes landscape dynamic of Bitahai watershed well. The landscape situation goes well in generally. It＇ s useful to recognize landscape change process.