中文摘要：

采用HBV-ETH模型,利用1980—2006年实测水文气象数据对乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川日径流进行模拟研究.在考虑度日因子和面积变化的基础上,模拟了1980—2006年流域的径流深和土壤蒸散发;依据水量平衡原理,得到了流域冰川物质平衡和冰川体积变化序列,同时对比验证了模型的模拟效果.研究表明：若将冰川面积视为常数进行模拟,将会使得模拟径流比实际偏大,过去26a平均高估7%左右.1980—2006年间,若不考虑面积变化,累积体积变化被高估3%左右.

英文摘要：

The HBV model was applied to simulate the runoff of the Glacier No.1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River,while the degree-day model was used to calculate ice and snow melt.Using measured hydro-meteorological data during 1980-2006 and five glacier area topographic maps as the model input,the daily runoff of the watershed were simulated.Also,it is emphatically analyzed how the degree-day factor and glacier area fluctuation impact the glacial meltwater runoff.The results show that the adjusted degree-day factor and glacier area are able to make the simulation results greatly improved,which proved the model itself being highly sensitive to the degree-day factor.In a long time scale,simulation of glacier runoff and mass balance should update glacier area annually,as a variable in order to improve the simulation accuracy.Based on the above considerations,the runoff and soil evaporation are simulated from1980 to 2006.Based on the principle of water balance,the mass balance and glacier ice volume sequences in the watershed are calculated,while the simulation results of the model are compared and validated.It is found that glacier area change would affect the runoff simulation for a longer time scale,and should not be ignored.It would make the simulated runoff larger than the actual one if the glacier area is a constant.The average error due to glacier are change is about 7% in the past 26 years for the Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River.