中文摘要：

在人民币汇率弹性增强的条件下，货币政策调控效果的变化尚存在着争议。本文通过估计结构向量自回归模型，动态模拟了人民币汇率弹性进一步增强的情景，进而讨论了我国货币供给冲击对经济的影响以及货币政策应对国际冲击的策略。我们发现，人民币汇率弹性增强后，货币供给冲击对经济的影响被更缓慢的释放，我国货币政策调控将获得更大的空间，使得货币政策更具有灵活性。此外，我们还发现，不管汇率弹性如何，净出口下降都能有利于促进我国经济增长，而汇率弹性的增强则更有利于降低国际资本流动的顺周期效应和提高我国货币政策的自主性。

英文摘要：

Existing literatures show that, under the condition of further enhancement of the RMB exchange rate flexibility, there are still controversies about the changes in the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the estimation of structural vector auto - regressive model, this paper dynamically simulates the scene that the RMB exchange rate flexibility further enhanced, and discusses the effect of monetary supply shock in China as well as the monetary policy response to exogenous shocks. We suggest that after the enhancement of exchange rate flexi- bility, the monetary supply shock to the economy will be released at a slower speed, and our monetary policy operation can have more space, which make the flexibility of monetary policy improved. In addition, we find that, regardless of the exchange rate flexibility, the decline in the net exports can be conducive to our economic growth, while the further enhancement of the exchange rate flexibility helps alleviate the pro - cyclical effects of international capital flows and improve the autonomy of monetary policy.