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中文摘要：
基于变异性识别原理,采用均值变点识别的最大似然比法和方差变点的西沃兹信息准则法,以广东省东江为例,考虑流域内三大水库的影响,构建径流年内分配不均匀系数年际变化的实测序列和还原序列,研究河川径流年内分配的变化特征及其变异状况。结果显示：与还原序列相比,东江实测径流年内分配不均匀系数多年均值明显下降,介于0.47～0.63;年际变差系数却明显增大,介于0.34～0.48。不均匀系数的参数变点普遍存在,显著变点出现在1968年。与变点前相比,不均匀系数的多年均值和年际变差系数均明显下降,分别介于0.40～0.54和0.25～0.32。还原序列的不均匀系数不存在变点,但1968年仍为年序列的最大分割点。与分割点前相比,不均匀系数的多年均值变化不大,但年际变差系数均明显下降,而且下降程度大于实测序列。径流年内分配不均均匀系数的年际变异主要贡献来自于流域3大水库的径流调节,同时也存在其他因素影响着不均匀性的年际变化幅度。
英文摘要：
Based on the likelihood ratio method testing in the mean and the Schwarz Information Criterion testing in the variance,the variability of nonuniform coefficients of annual streamflow distribution in the gauging runoff series and reconstructed runoff series returning water regulation of three large reservoirs in the Dongjiang River is analyzed in this paper.Main conclusions are as follows：Compared to reconstructed series,annual mean values of the nonuniform coefficient of gauging series significantly decrease,being between 0.47-0.63,while annual variation coefficients remarkably increase,being between 0.34-0.48.The change-point of the nonuniform coefficients obviously occurred in 1968.Both annual mean values and variation coefficients decrease distinctly after the change point,with values between 0.40-0.54 and between 0.25-0.32 respectively.The segmentation point of the nonuniform coefficient of reconstructed series also occurred in 1968 regardless of no tested change point.Annual mean values after the segmentation point show little change,but annual variation coefficients greatly decrease.The variabi-lity of the nonuniform coefficients in annual streamflow distribution is mainly resulted from water regulation of three reservoirs in the Donjiang River.Some other factors influence the annual variation range.
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