中文摘要：

本文立足当前塔河流域的成本水价，基于流域主要节水技术成本投入，构建了流域农业节水水价；然后．利用已有研究资料和流域不同作物的水分生产函数，进一步构建了流域农业水价的需求效应模型；分析了未来塔河流域不同农业节水水价的节水效应。研究结果表明：①基于节水水价的未来农业水价的调整可大幅降低灌水量．提高节水效应；②流域水价弹性系数会由缺乏弹性变为富有弹性，这成为流域农业水价调整可行性的一个标志；③不同作物水价需求弹性效应差别很大，这使未来流域农业水价的需求效应分析事关流域粮食安全和用水户的水价承受力问题，成为未来塔河流域农业水价调整研究的重要相关研究内容。

英文摘要：

On the basis of agricultural water cost, we firstly figure out the price of water-saving agriculture according to the investment in water-saving agricultural techniques per unit water. In other words, the price of water-saving agriculture is equal to the total cost of irrigation water supply and the investment in water-saving irrigation techniques per unit water. According to experiment data in yerqing irrigation district and the production function of irrigation water, we set up demand models for agricultural water price and elastic parameter of demand for water price. These models are also used to estimate the effect of agricultural water price adjustment on the quantity of irrigation water in Tarim River basin, based on different water-saving agriculture price. We reached below conclusions： the saving effect of future price adjustment on the quantity of irrigation water is very obvious, after the adjustment of water price based on the saving water price and the water price of its 1.5, 3.0 and 6.0 times. The elastic demand parameter of water price can be changed from being scarce in elasticity to rich in elasticity, and can be used as a signal to determine if the adjusted agricultural water price can be executed in the future in the Tarim river basin, because water-saving agriculture price or the other higher water-saving prices should be highly effective in water-saving techniques to satisfy the basic demand of irrigation water for crops, which is still difficult to meet. It is the inner functional mechanism of the saving effect of future Agricultural water price. It is reasonable to adopt different demand elasticity of water price for different crop is great, because it not only promote the optimal arrangement and effective use of water resource, but is also relative to regional grain production safety and water price affordability of the farmers, which is the key contents of future price adjustment for agricultural water. The elasticity of water demand for food crop and its economic profit is much lower, w