中文摘要：

针对有效利用路段行程时间随机性特征计算路径、OD对（originanddestination，出发和到达地点）及交通网络上的行程时间可靠度问题进行了研究，提出一种更加准确的求解路径和OD对之间行程时间可靠度的计算方法。该方法基于Copula理论，通过构建Copula函数求出能够反映路径与OD对随机性特征的行程时间联合密度分布。新算法将路段流量实测数据用于模型的标定，并且考虑到了同一路径上不同路段的相关性。结合三种拓扑结构下的实际路网作为算例，模型算法的有效性得到验证，结果表明，当不考虑路段间相关性时，路径行程时间可靠度的计算结果会被高估。

英文摘要：

Concentrating on the issue of travel time reliability estimating for routes, OD pairs and traffic network, the research proposed a new reliability estimating algorithm which incorporated the stochastic characteristic of link travel time. Based on the Copula theory, this methodology constructed a Copula function to determine the joint density function of travel time to produce travel time reliability value of routes and OD pairs. This method could put the actual measured data into model parameters cali- bration and it took the correlation problem of different links on the same route into consideration. Three kinds of traffic network topological structure cases testified the effectiveness of this new algorithm model. Results show that the ignorance of involving the links correlation effect into consideration will generate a higher reliability value.