中文摘要：

文章采用实物期权法，探讨了在土地市场行情的动态性和不确定性环境下，把握土地供应时机策略选择，分析管理柔性以及不确定性的信息带来的土地价值。研究发现，土地市场的不确定性增加了土地供应的机会价值；土地供应机会损失提高，期权价值下降；无风险利率提高，期权价值增加，政府土地购置成本降低，但不会降低其回报。因此，在市场行情不确定性环境下，政府应持续持有土地，而不是卖空；机会损失越大，土地储备量应减持；利率调整对开发商影响较大，对政府土地纯收益影响较小。政府可通过土地供应政策结合利率调整来调控土地市场。

英文摘要：

The paper employs real option approach to explore land supply timing strategy and analyze land management flexibility and its value under dynamics and uncertainty of land market quotations. The results show that the uncertainty of land market induces option value, the option value decreases with the opportunity loss growth of land supply, and local government＇ s land option value increases and acquisition cost decreases and investment returns don＇ t lower if the risk free rate rises. It is concluded that, local government should hold land and not go short, cut land backup holdings if the opportunity loss grows, and regulates land market by integration of land policy and interest rates adjustment because rates influences the investment returns of land developer more than local finance revenue.