科学设计干旱脆弱性的评价指标体系对定量化干旱脆弱性、干旱脆弱性分区与干旱风险管理有重要意义。以湖北省孝感市7个县市为研究区域,主要从社会经济的视角筛选出最能影响干旱脆弱性程度的17个因素作为评价指标,通过层析分析法确定评价指标中各个相关因素的权重,然后运用模糊综合评价方法实现了干旱脆弱性的评估。结果表明:孝感市干旱脆弱性程度总体水平较高,其中大悟县、孝昌县脆弱性程度最高。农业干旱脆弱性水平受经济、社会及政治制度等多重因素的影响。缓解干旱脆弱性是一项复杂的系统工程,需要从经济、社会及政治制度三个方面进行共同的努力:转变经济增长方式,增加农民收入;加强教育和健康方面的支出,提高社会整体福利水平;构建缓解干旱脆弱性的社会安全网。
Designing scientifically drought vulnerability evaluation index system has a great significance to the quantitative analysis of drought vulnerability,vulnerability zoning of drought and drought risk management.This article takes seven counties of Xiaogan city in Hubei province as the case study area,screens out 17 factors which closely related to drought vulnerability as evaluation index mainly from a socio-economic perspective,applies the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights of various relevant factors in the evaluation index,and then uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to achieve a drought vulnerability assessment.The results show that the overall level of drought vulnerability degree in Xiaogan city is high,in which Dawu county and Xiaochang county have the highest level of vulnerability.The level of agricultural drought vulnerability is affected by multiple factors,such as economic,social and political system and so on.Mitigating drought vulnerability is a complex systematic project.We should make joint efforts from three aspects: economic,social and political system: transforming economic growth mode and increasing farmer income;strengthening education and health expenditures,improving the overall welfare level;building social safety nets to mitigate drought vulnerability.