中文摘要：

选取81个国家（地区）1985—2008年间发生的货币危机和银行危机为样本,分析危机前后经常账户变动及经常账户逆转背景下资本流入突然中断的特征,发现对于每一类国家（地区）,发生资本流入突然中断的主要项目与其经常账户的主要融资渠道基本吻合。Weibull参数生存分析模型对危机恢复时间的结果表明,经常账户逆转背景下的各类型资本流入突然中断都将对实体经济恢复速度产生负面冲击。适时适度地主动调节一国（地区）经常账户结构,不仅可以降低长期经常账户高赤字存在的不可持续和引发危机的风险,更可以避免因经常账户逆转、资本流入的突然中断而激增的产出成本,从而降低危机恢复的难度。

英文摘要：

Based on currency crises and banking crises that occurred in 81 countries in 1985- 2008, this paper conducts a before-and-after analysis of the change in current account around financial crises. The main current account items under w hich sudden stops occur generally coincide w ith the major financing channels of each country groups. The results of Weibull parametric survival model demonstrates that,all types of sudden stops under current account reversal lead to a tardy output recovery from financial crises. Timely adjusting the current account structure not only reduces the risk of experiencing financial crises,but also speeds up the recovery once crises erupt.