认清旅游业碳排放的特征及其人文影响因素,对旅游业低碳发展目标制定具有重要意义.以江西为例,利用IPAT等式分析其旅游业碳排放特征,并用扩展IPAT模型分析其主要人文影响因素.结果表明:(1)1999-2011年江西省域旅游业碳排放增长十分明显,年均增长率达17.56%.旅游交通是第一贡献者,其次为旅游住宿,旅游活动的碳排放最小.(2)当前经济发展模式使自然环境不断恶化,因而急需转变,而新型城镇化战略对自然环境的不利影响不明显,因而值得提倡.(3)人口、GDP等因素增长会促使旅游碳排放继续增长,其中第二、三产业对该碳排放增长的促进作用较第一产业大,而区域技术进步可能会对其旅游碳排放起到一定抑制作用,因而未来应努力提高区域技术水平.
It is important to make clear the characteristics of carbon emissions from tourism and its main influencing factors, especially for drawing up the development target of low carbon tourism. Taking Jiangxi as an example, this paper studied its characteristics of carbon emissions in the tourism industry by using IPAT equation and the main humanity affecting-factors by the extended IPAT model. The results showed that: firstly, the carbon emissions" growth of tourism in Jiangxi province from 1999 to 2011 was obvious, with an average annual growth rate of 17.56%. Tourism traffic was the first contributor, followed by tourism accommodation, the carbon emissions from tourist activities was the minimum. Secondly, the current mode of economic development deteriorated the natural environment, so it must be changed. But, it was still worthy to advocate the new urbanization strategy, because its adverse influence on the natural environment was negligible. Thirdly, with the growth of population, GDP and other factors, the carbon emissions of tourism would still grow. The facilitations of the second, third industries on the carbon emissions growth were more than the first industry. But the regional technological progress might have a certain inhibiting effect on its carbon emissions of tourism. Therefore, the regional technical level should be improved in the future.