中文摘要：

本文利用1990-2015年中国奶业省际面板数据,借助相对熵值法考察了中国奶业空间分布特征,并引入动态面板模型实证了中国奶业空间分布的驱动因素。研究发现：1）1990年以来,中国奶业地理集中演化模式总体呈现“横向扩散”特征;2）区域层面看,华北和西北奶业呈现“横向扩散”模式,而大城市、东北和南方奶业凸显内部扩大模式;3）2011年中国奶业首现衰退恶化迹象,但华北、大城市和南方表现为横向扩散;4）从区域之间地理集中模式演化看,中国奶业消耗缩减模式存在区域之间梯度转移现象,其转移路径依次为“大城市、华北、东北、西北”;而南方奶业表现出奶牛存栏持续增长的良好发展势头;5）计量模型结果表明,地区饲料供给,奶牛存栏一期滞后以及经济增长促进奶业集聚,而奶牛单产和人口规模递增驱使奶业扩散。

英文摘要：

Based on a state-level panel data set of China＇s dairy industry from 1990 to 2015, and applying the dynamic panel model and the relative entropy method, this paper investigated the spatial distribution characteristics of China＇s dairy industry and analyzed the driving factors of it. Results show that： 1） since 1990, at the national level, the geographical concentration pattern of China＇s dairy industry has been observed as ＂diffusion＂. And at the regional level, both Central North China and Northwest China showed ＂diffusion＂ pattern. However, augmentation features were shown in metropolitan areas, Northeast and South China; 2） in 2011, the recession pattern first appeared at the national level, while the pattern of diffusion was maintained in the regions of Central North China, South China and metropolises; 3） in terms of the change of regional geographical concentration patterns, ＂attrition＂ pattern shifted orderly from ＂metropolitan areas to Central North, Northeast, and to Northwest China＂. Surprisingly, South China has enjoyed a consistent increase in cow inventories all the time since 1990; and 4） according to the econometric analysis results, regional feed supply, the one year lag of cow inventory and economic growth factors promote dairy cows clustering, while per cow productivity and the total population boost lead to the dispersion of cows.