中文摘要：

经典的网络可靠性问题认为网络和部件只存在完全工作或完全故障两种状态。但在运输网络中，节点和弧可能处于某种中间状态，即存在多状态特性。描述了一种基于Petri网计算多状态运输网络端端可靠度的方法，节点和弧的能力可以服从任何分布，传输时间是与其当前能力和运输需求有关的的随机值。能力随机有色Petri网被用于模拟系统行为，通过仿真估算多状态运输网络的端端可靠度，同时可以确定可靠度最高的最优路径，最后给出了一些计算实验。

英文摘要：

Classical network reliability problem assumes both network and components have only binary states, fully working or fully failed states. But in the transportation network, the nodes and arcs may be in intermediate states which are not fully working either fully failed. This paper describes a Petri net-based approach for computing the two-terminal reliability of a multi-state transportation network. In this study,the capacities of roads （arcs） and the abilities of crossings （nodes） may be in a stochastic state following a kind of probability distribution. And the transmission time of each arc is also not a fixed number but stochastic according to its current capacity and demand. The stochastic coloured Petri net is used for modeIling the system behaviour. Capaeitated transition and self-modified token eolour with route information are defined to describe the multi-state transportation network. By the simulation, the two-terminal reliability can be estimated and the optimal route with highest reliability also can be given. Finally, some experiments are given.