考虑到农产品在运输销售过程中的大量损耗变质,从风险规避型零售商角度,引入期权契约来研究单周期二级农产品供应链中零售商的最优订货策略。首先通过条件风险模型刻画零售商的风险规避程度,然后分别构建在批发价格下和期权契约下的决策目标函数,最后得到零售商的农产品最优订购策略。模型分析得到,考虑损耗和风险规避因素下,零售商在期权契约下的农产品基本订购量与期权购买量之和大于批发价格下的订购量;零售商期权契约下获得的收益大于批发价格下的收益;零售商的订购量和利润都与农产品损耗率、风险规避程度成反比;在期权契约下,零售商能有效地规避市场不确定性带来的风险。
This paper focused on the huge wastage and deterioration in the transportation and marketing, and discussed the option contracts for optimal ordering strategies of risk-averse retailer with two echelon agricultural supply chain in one period.It constructed the objective decision function of risk-averse retailer described by the conditional value-at-risk under wholesale price contracts and option contracts. Finally the retailer could get the optimal ordering strategies of agricultural products. The conclusion by analyzing models are following, the total quantity of retailer with option contracts including basic ordering and option is more than quantity in wholesale price contracts under the wastage and risk aversion. The maximum profit of retailer with option contracts more than the other one. The quantity and profit of retailer are negative correlative to the wastage rate and risk aversion. The retailer could effectively avoid the risk caused by marketing uncertainty with option contracts.