中文摘要：

This paper proposes a method for predicting the development of tropical disturbance over the South China Sea(SCS)based on the total latent heat release(TLHR)derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager(SSM/I)satellite observations.A threshold value of daily mean TLHR(3×1014 W)for distinguishing the non-developing and developing tropical disturbances is obtained based on the analysis for 25 developing and 43 non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2000 to 2005.If the mean TLHR within 500 km of a disturbance on the latest day and its daily mean TLHR during previous life are both greater than 3×1014 W,the disturbance will be a developing one in the future.Otherwise,it is a non-developing one.A real-time testing prediction of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS was conducted for the years 2007 and 2008 using this threshold value of TLHR.We find that the method is successful in detecting the development of 80%of all tropical disturbances over the SCS in 2007 and 2008.

英文摘要：

This paper proposes a method for predicting the development of tropical disturbance over the South China Sea （SCS） based on the total latent heat release （TLHR） derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager （SSM/I） satellite observations. A threshold value of daily mean TLHR （3 x 1014 W） for distinguishing the non-developing and developing tropical disturbances is obtained based on the analysis for 25 developing and 43 non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2000 to 2005. If the mean TLHR within 500 km of a disturbance on the latest day and its daily mean TLHR during previous life are both greater than 3x1014 W, the disturbance will be a developing one in the future. Otherwise, it is a non-developing one. A real-time testing prediction of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS was conducted for the years 2007 and 2008 using this threshold value of TLHR. We find that the method is successful in detecting the development of 80% of all tropical disturbances over the SCS in 2007 and 2008.