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中文摘要：
水文预报模型是实时预报预警系统的核心。基于新型的概率水文预报PDM（The Probability Distributed Model），构建了北江流域飞来峡水库概率水文预报模型。将整个流域划分为18个子流域，对每个子流域分别建立PDM，并采用历史降雨流量数据序列对各子流域和流域PDM进行参数率定；以横石站为参考站，采用52场次实测历史洪水进行模型验证和精度评定，洪峰预报合格率为99％，精度等级为甲等，模拟精度高，说明了PDM结构和参数取值的合理性，以及模型在该流域的适用性。
英文摘要：
A hydrological forecast model is the core of real-time forecast and warning system. Based on the PDM （Probability Distributed Model）, the probability hydrological forecast model for Feilaixia reservoir in the Beijiang River basin is developed in this paper. The Beijiang River basin is divided into 18 sub-basins. The PDM of each sub-basin is established. Parameters calibration of the whole fiver basin and the sub-basins is performed by using historical rainfall and flow data. Taking Hengshi hydrological station as a reference station, the developed model is tested and verified by using historical measured flood data from 52 times of flood records. The analysis results show that the developed model is of high accuracy with the qualified rate of flood peak forecasting being 99% and reaching the first precision grade level. The model structure and parameter values of the PDM are of rationality and applicability in Beijiang River basin. After practical application it shows that the model, having a high precision in forecasting, can provide a new reference for hydrological forecasting approach in our country.
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