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中文摘要：
以中国移动定制机分销模式的变动为例,本文运用结构计量模型对渠道结构变动的经济效应做了实证分析。在估计出需求参数和渠道成本参数的基础上,本文通过反事实模拟方法,评估了中国移动推行后向一体化战略对产业链上各行为主体的经济影响。结果发现,国代商同时向社会渠道和中国移动渠道分销定制机存在显著的规模经济;中国移动收回国代商定制机的分销代理权后,国代商与中国移动自身的边际成本均有所上升,且二者的利润边际都出现下降,这意味着中国移动改变企业边界和渠道结构安排是明显的＂双输＂决策。
英文摘要：
Taking the change of distribution channel of China Mobile （CM） customized cellular phone for example, we applied a structural econometric model to assess the effects of the changes of channel structure. Based on the estimated demand and channel cost parameters, we then makes use of counterfactual simulation to evaluates the effects on the economic agent in the industrial chain of the channel structure change of backward integration by China Mobile. The results show that there are significant economies of scale when the national distributors simultaneously operate social and CM distribution system. After the withdrawal of the distribution dealership by CM, the marginal costs of the national distributors and CM both have increased while their profit margins declined, implying that this change of channel structure by CM is a ＂lose-lose ＂ decision.
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