中文摘要：

基于DPSIR模型框架,构建农业水土资源安全评价指标体系,采用结构方程模型对宁夏地区农业水土资源安全进行定量评价,探讨宁夏农业水土资源发展路径。结果表明：2004—2014年宁夏农业水土资源安全变化过程中,驱动力指数和状态指数呈稳步上升态势,分别由2004年的-1.172和-1.067上升到2014年的1.754和1.540;压力指数总体下降趋势明显,但压力指数是个负向指标,表明水土资源承受的压力越来越大;宁夏环境对全球气候变化的反应敏感,影响指数没有明显规律;响应指数除2013年异常外,其余年份平稳上升。宁夏地区2004—2014年农业水土资源安全指数大体可分为3个阶段：2004—2008年,安全指数从-0.434变化到0.091,虽然5 a中有3 a都处于低级,但整体呈上升态势;2008—2010年从0.091下降到-0.344,形势不容乐观;2010—2014年,由-0.344上升到0.659,安全指数中级以上年份达到80%。灰色预测结果显示,2015—2020年宁夏地区农业水土资源安全潜力呈稳步上升趋势,有望由2015年的0.523提高到2020年的1.204,安全指数均为高级。虽然宁夏农业水土资源安全水平实现了等级跨越,但目前尚处于起步阶段,仍有极大的提升空间。

英文摘要：

In the present study,an evaluation index system of agricultural water and soil resources security was constructed under the DPSIR model framework by structural equation modeling to quantitatively evaluate the water and soil resources security in Ningxia from 2004 to 2014,and to explore the optimal paths for water and soil resources security in Ningxia.It was shown that the evaluation indexes of driving force subsystem and state subsystem showed a steady upward development trend,and were increased from -1.172 and -1.067 in 2004 to 1.754 and 1.540 in 2014,respectively.The evaluation index of pressure subsystem continued to decrease.As the pressure subsystem was a negative index,it showed that the pressure of agriculture water and soil resources was increasing.Because theenvironment of Ningxia was sensitive to the global climate change,the evaluation index of impact subsystem didn＇t show a clear trend.The evaluation index of response subsystem displayed steady and rapid growth except a single point anomaly in 2013.Overall,the agricultural water and soil resources security in Ningxia could be divided into 3 stages：（1） The security index increased from -0.434 in 2004 to 0.091 in 2008,despite that three years in the past five years were at a low level;（2） The security index decreased from 0.091 in 2008 to -0.344 in 2010,when the situation was not optimistic;（3） The security index increased from -0.344 in 2010 to 0.659 in 2014,when the intermediate level reached to 80%.The result of grey prediction showed that the agricultural water and soil resources security in Ningxia would be on a steady rise state in 2015-2010.The potential security index might rise from 0.523 to 1.204,and the security indexes would all be at high level.The security development of agricultural water and soil resources in Ningxia had some breakthrough,but it was still lying in the initial stage and had great potential.