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我国台风监测预报预警体系的现状及建议

ISSN号：1009-1742
期刊名称：中国工程科学
时间：0
页码：4-9
分类：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S948[农业科学—水产养殖;农业科学—水产科学]
作者机构：[1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, [3]Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Techniques, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030
相关基金：Supported by the National （Key） Basic Research and Development （973） Program of China （2009CB421505）,National Natural Science Foundation of China （40775060,41005033,40975035,and 40921160381）,and China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund （GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002）.
相关项目：台湾岛对热带气旋强度和结构影响的数值研究

关键词：准周期变化, 敏感性试验, 热带气旋, 雨带, 表面, 熵流, 非绝热加热, 控制仿真, tropical cyclone, outer rainband, intensity, inner-core size

中文摘要：

热带气旋(TC ) 上的外部核心的表面熵流动(SEF ) 的影响外部雨线活动在这研究被调查与一充分可压缩， nonhydrostatic 模型。有 20% 人工地增加并且减少的外部核心的 SEF 的控制模拟和二个敏感实验分别地被进行检验伪周期的外部雨线行为。更大的否定水平移流在提高 SEF 的实验由于由不对称的旋涡的更大的光线的风和积极贡献导致 outerrainband 活动的一个更长的时期。在控制和减少 SEF 的模拟的开发得好的外部雨线显著地限制 TC 紧张，而如此的紧张抑制影响在提高 SEF 的实验是不显著的。当在外部雨线加热的 diabatic 加强外部核心的正切的风，外部雨线的伪周期的活动贡献 TC 的内部核心的尺寸的伪周期的变化。

英文摘要：

The influence of outer-core surface entropy fluxes （SEFs） on tropical cyclone （TC） outer rainband activity is investigated in this study with a fully compressible,nonhydrostatic model.A control simulation and two sensitivity experiments with the outer-core SEF artificially increased and decreased by 20% respectively were conducted to examine the quasi-periodic outer rainband behavior.Larger negative horizontal advection due to the greater radial wind and the positive contribution by asymmetric eddies leads to a longer period of outer-rainband activity in the SEF-enhanced experiment.The well-developed outer rainbands in the control and SEF-reduced simulations significantly limit the TC intensity,whereas such an intensity suppression influence is not pronounced in the SEF-enhanced experiment.As diabatic heating in outer rainbands strengthens the outer-core tangential wind,the quasi-periodic activity of outer rainbands contributes to the quasi-periodic variations of the inner-core size of the TCs.

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