中文摘要：

本文在分析汽车产业技术创新能力影响因素的基础上,构建汽车产业技术创新能力影响因素的系统动力学模型并进行模拟仿真,对影响汽车产业技术创新能力的各因素及其关系进行系统分析。仿真结果表明：增加要素的投入,尤其是增加企业家因素、产学研合作强度及外商投资力度对自主品牌汽车销量具有显著的正向影响;增加企业R＆D和人力资源的投入不能给新产品销量带来显著影响;政府的支持有时会增加企业的创新成本。研究结果可为汽车产业进行技术创新提供决策依据。

英文摘要：

The system dynamics model of the influence factors is established and simulated in order to analyze the relationship of influence factors based on the analysis of the influence factors of technological innovation ability in automobile industry. Simulation results show it has a significant positive impact on the independent brand car sales to increase factor inputs,especially to increase the intensity factor of entrepreneurship,production-study-research cooperation and foreign investment. And it has not a significant impact on the new product sales to increase R＆D and human resource investment. The support of the government sometimes can increase the cost of enterprises’ innovation. The research results can provide decision-making basis for automobile industry technological innovation.