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中文摘要：
在理论分析的基础上,采用结构变化单位根（ZA）检验对数据进行处理,运用结构变化协整（GH）检验实证研究人民币汇率、人民币升值预期与外汇储备之间的相关性.实证结果表明：人民币汇率（名义有效汇率及实际有效汇率）与外汇储备之间不存在普通意义上的协整关系;而人民币升值预期与外汇储备之间存在发生结构变化的长期协整关系,人民币升值预期会加速外汇储备的增长,而外汇储备的增长具有反馈作用,会强化人民币升值预期.
英文摘要：
This paper employs structural break unit root ZA test and structural break cointegration GH test to investigate the correlationships among RMB exchange rate,RMB appreciation expectations and foreign exchange reserves based on the theoretical analysis.The results show that there is no simple cointegration between RMB exchange rate（nominal effective exchange rate and real effective exchange rate） and foreign exchange reserves,while there is a structural break cointegration relationship between RMB appreciation expectations and foreign exchange reserves.RMB appreciation expectations can accelerate increases in foreign exchange reserves,while foreign exchange reserves increase have an feedback effect which facilitates the RMB appreciation expectations.
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