中文摘要：

微观交通流仿真是智能运输系统研究与开发的重要手段。期望车速是微观交通流仿真研究的一个重要参数，受到驾驶员特性、车辆特性、道路条件、交通干扰、天气和承运任务急缓等多种因素的影响，准确确定期望车速是驾驶员行为研究的难点。从研究驾驶员心理-物理特性的角度出发，利用层次分析法，对驾驶员决策思维的递阶层次进行量化，建立基于人-车-路-环境综合计算的驾驶员期望车速模型。经过实测数据验证，该方法用于驾驶员期望车速模型的研究是可行的。

英文摘要：

Microcosmic traffic simulation is important means for studying the intelligent transportation systems. The desired speed is an important parameter in microcosmic traffic simulation. The desired speed is influenced by many different factors, such as the driver characteristics, the vehicle characteristics, the road condition, the traffic interference, weather and the emergency of assignment. It is difficult to determine the desired speed exactly for studying driving behavior. Based on the driver’s psycho-physic characteristic, AHP method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver’s dynamic decision-making process. The driving desired speed model based on integrated calculation of human-vehicle-road-environment is established. The algorithm is feasible through the field data test.