基于中国1983—2012年的数据,从金融发展规模和效率方面选取金融相关比率和存贷比作为被解释变量,从经济基础、法律因素、制度与宏观政策以及社会资本与文化等方面选取农村人均纯收入、律师占比、非国有化程度和对外开放度、政策性支农状况、农村社会救济比和人口受教育程度等作为解释变量,运用协整和误差修正模型,检验了金融生态环境因素对农村金融发展的影响。结果表明:经济基础和制度、社会资本对农村金融发展有显著正向影响,文化对金融发展规模有显著正向影响,但是对于金融效率的影响不显著,而法律因素对金融发展的影响不显著。误差修正模型中两个误差修正系数均为负值,表明其符合反向修正机制,因而无论是长期还是短期,农村金融发展依赖于农村金融发展的环境要素,特别重要的是经济基础的改善、制度变革的持续以及社会资本与文化水平的提高。
Using 1983-2011 data, through cointegration and error correction model, this paper tested the effect of financial ecological environment factors on the rural financial development. The results show that income of rural residents, non nationalization, opening degree and the status of rural social relief have significant positive impact on the development of rural finance, the education level has significant positive impact on the scale of financial development, but the financial efficiency is not affected. The impact of lawyers' proportion on financial development is not significant. Using co integration test and error correction model, the effect of financial ecological environment factors on the development of rural finance was tested. The resultshows that the economic foundation and system, social capital have significant positive effect on rural finance, and the culture has positive effect on the development scale, but not significant effect on the financial efficiency, and the impact of legal factors is not significant. In the error correction model, the two error correction coefficients are all negative, which indicates that the results is accord with reverse correction mechanism. Therefore, whether in long or short term, rural financial development would rely on financial ecological environment factor, especially the improve of rural economic fundation, the sustained institutional change as well as the increase of social capital and culture.