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中文摘要：
自1990年以来，中国出口增速呈现出明显的周期性波动，对国内宏观经济产生了重大影响。为了准确描述中国出口增长的周期性波动，本文首先从中国及其主要贸易伙伴国的经济数据中选取了先行、一致及滞后指标，然后通过运用主成分方法构建中国出口景气指数，并分析了不同周期的主要成因。分析表明，在上世纪90年代的前期和中期，中国出口周期受政府调控和国内投资等内部因素的）中击影响较大；而90年代后期至今，中国出口周期受世界经济周期、产业分工转移趋势、区域政治经济环境等外部因素的冲击影响正逐步加大。本文还进一步探讨了为避免出口周期性波动对宏观经济造成冲击的政策建议。
英文摘要：
Since 1990, Chinese export development has been with great cyclical fluctuations, which impacts Chinese macro- economy greatly. To illustrate Chinese export cyclical fluctuation, this paper chooses leading, coincident and lagging indicators from the data of China and its trading partners at first. Secondly, this paper constructs Chinese export climate index with the Principal Component Analysis, then analyzes the causes resulting in different export fluctuation periods. The analysis shows that government policy and investment are the main factors causing Chinese export cycle fluctuation during the earlier and middle period of 1990s. However, the external factors, such as world economy cycle, industry specialization trend and regional political ＆ economic environment, have impacted Chinese export cycle greatly from the later period of 1990s till now. Further, this paper offers some policy suggestions on the issue how to ease the impacts of export cycle fluctuation on Chinese macro- economy.
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