中文摘要：

在我国东南沿海山地丘陵区,台风暴雨常诱发大量山体滑坡、崩塌和泥石流地质灾害,造成财产严重损失和人员伤亡。以2015年登陆的“苏罗迪”台风为例,在系统分析“苏罗迪”台风诱发地质灾害时空分布和预警效果的基础上,得出了如下结论：（1）“苏罗迪”台风诱发的600余处崩滑流灾害,主要集中分布在浙江、福建等东南沿海地区,灾害规模以小型为主,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流数量比例约为6∶2∶1,具有空间集中群发性;台风降雨诱发地质灾害具有“即雨即滑”的特点,当日降雨当日崩滑,具有强降雨当日即发性;小时降雨空间分布不均匀,地质灾害发生时间往往比平均小时大雨强滞后,滞后时间约1～2h,具有大雨强小时滞后性。因此,台风降雨诱发地质灾害具有空间集中群发性、强降雨当日即发性、大雨强小时滞后性三大特征。（2）提出了基于“命中率、漏报率和空报率”三指标的地质灾害预警校验方法,建立完善了各指标的测算方法和计算公式。“苏罗迪”台风地质灾害预警校验结果显示,本次过程中地质灾害气象预警效果总体较好,保证了较高的命中率,较低的漏报率,但预警区空报率偏高。除地质灾害气象预警本身的技术难度外,降雨预报准确率偏低特别是极端降雨预报不足的现状也是造成地质灾害空报率偏高的原因之一。

英文摘要：

Abstract： In China, geological hazards induced by typhoon rainstorm in hilly areas of southeast coast, including landslides, collapses and debris flows, have caused heavy property loss and casualties. Based on the analysis of temporal-spatial distribution of geo-hazards caused by the Typhoon Soudelor in 2015, some results are as following： （1） more than 600 geological hazards induced by the Typhoon Soudelor mainly occurred in the hilly areas of the southeast coast, such as Zhejiang and Fujian province. The hazards were predominated by small-scale and spatially clustering. Quantitative proportion of landslides, collapses and debris flows are 6 ： 2 ： 1. One of the characteristics of geological hazards induced by typhoon rainstorm is that landslides occur on the day of rainfall, especially heavy rainfall. Meanwhile hourly rainfall is inhomogeneous in space, and the occurring time of hazards almost lags about 1 to 2 hours behind the average hourly heavy rainfall. Therefore, three characteristics are proposed： spatially clustering, susceptibility and hysteresis. （2） ＂Hit rate, underreporting rate and false rate＂ evaluation methods of early warning are proposed and defined with computing method and formula established, respectively. According to the verification result of early warning of geological hazards induced by the Typhoon Soudelor, the hit rate is high, the underreporting rate is low but the false rate is higher. In addition to technique difficulties of the meteorological early warning of geological hazards, the other reasons for a higher false rate are lower accuracy rate of rainfall forecasting and poor forecasting of extreme rainfall.