根据陕北志丹县1997~2006年(退耕前,退耕后)的土地利用/覆被变化,采用相关分析、多元逐步回归分析方法,利用对应年份和社会经济统计资料,建立社会经济驱动力模型,分析引起土地利用/覆被变化的主要原因。研究结果表明:耕地、林地和草地是该县主要的土地利用类型。随着退耕还林工程建设的实施,有林地、灌木林地、草地、居民用地和耕地类型之间的面积发生了变化,其中主要是耕地和林地之间发生双向转化,且主要是在于1999~2006年间。人口和经济是该县土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。自实施退耕还林(草)工程以来,该地区土地利用状况好转,生态环境正在不断改善。
According to the statistic data of Zhidan County in the northern Shaanxi province during 1997~2006,which indicates land use/land coverage changes, the social and economical driving force models were established by using the correlation analysis and multi-variables regression method to analyze the main reasons. The result shows that the cropland, woodland and grassland are the main land use patterns in the county. With the implementation of the conversion of cropland to woodland project, the proportion of woodland, shrub land, grassland, resident land and cropland has been changed. The changes mainly happened on the bidirectional conversion between cropland and woodland during 1999~2006. Population and economy were the main driving factors for the changes of land use and land coverage in Zhidan County. Since the conversion of cropland to woodland and grassland program was carried into execution, the land use and eco-environment have been changed rationally.