中文摘要：

开展区域土地利用变化的多情景模拟对比研究,是厘清不同土地利用变化情景特点的重要基础,可为土地利用规划与政策制定提供多决策支持。本文在分析各地类转移情况的基础上,遵从自然增长、效益最大的原则,结合CLUE-S模型和Markov、Tietenberg模型对武汉市蔡甸区未来土地利用变化进行不同情景的模拟预测,并分析了各情景下土地利用变化的时空特征及土地收益。结果表明：（1）各情景下城镇村及工矿用地的来源结构差异明显。自然增长情景（情景Ⅰ）中城镇村及工矿用地增加的主要来源是耕地和水域用地,收益最大情景（情景Ⅱ）中城镇村及工矿用地增加的主要来源是耕地;（2）从景观结构和稳定性来看,两种情景下耕地和城镇村及工矿用地景观结构变化显著,耕地在两种情景下均呈现＂稳定-不稳定-稳定＂的变化规律,情景Ⅱ下城镇村及工矿用地景观稳定性更高,且新生成的城镇村及工矿用地斑块具有面积小、数量多的特点;（3）各情景下城镇用地扩张方式不尽相同,情景Ⅱ中城镇用地的扩张具有扩张速度更缓和、布局更均匀的特点,情景Ⅰ中城镇用地是围绕中心城区的摊大饼外延扩张方式;（4）从土地收益来看,在相同用地量下情景Ⅱ中土地获取的收益高于情景Ⅰ。

英文摘要：

A comparative study of multi-scenario simulation about land use change is an important basis for clarifying the characteristics of different land-use change scenarios, and it can provide multi-decision support for land use planning and policy formulation. Based on the analysis of the transfer of various land types, this paper follows the principle of natural growth and maximum benefit, simulates the future land use change in different situation by combining the CLUE-S model with Markov model and Tietenberg model, then analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics and land benefits of land use change in different situations. The results show as follows. Under different scenarios,the structure of urban and residential land and mining land sources is obviously different. In scenario Ⅰ,the increase of urban and residential land and mining land mainly comes from cultivated land and water area from 2010 to 2019. In scenario Ⅱ,the increase of urban and residential land and mining land is mainly from cultivated land. From the view of landscape structure and stability,the cultivated land, urban and residential land and mining lands changed significantly under the two scenarios. The cultivated land presented a change principle of ＂stability to instability and then to stability＂ under two scenarios. The landscape stability of urban and residential land and mining lands was higher. The newly generated urban and residential land and mining land＇s plots have the small area, large quantity characteristics. In different scenarios,the expansion of the urban and residential land and mining land is different. In Scenario Ⅰ,urban and residential and mining lands have been expanding rapidly which is mainly around the core urban area and the surrounding areas. In scenario Ⅱ,urban and residential and mining lands have the characteristics of more rapid expansion and more uniform layout. It encourages the rational urban land to expand in an orderly way. From the perspective of land benefits, the land acquisition income in s