中文摘要：

采用灰色关联分析法分析了2000年-2005年湖南碳排放量与经济增长、人口规模、产业结构以及城市化水平四影响因素的关联度，得出城市化水平与碳排放量的关系最为显著的结论，同时运用GM（1，1）灰色预测模型对湖南未来几年碳排放量做出预测（2010年-2012年），结果表明：如果保持目前的经济增长速度、人口规模、产业结构以及城市化水平，碳排放量仍将保持较高的增长速度。最后提出关于湖南减少碳排放的政策建议。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the correlation of carbon emissions in Hunan 2000--2005 and economic growth, population size, industrial structure, level of urbanization by using the Grey correlation method, and draws a conclusion that the relationship between carbon emissions and the level of urbanization is the most significant. Meanwhile, GM （1,1） Grey forecasting model has been used to forecast carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012 in Hunan, and the results show that if the current economic growth, population size, industrial structure and level of urbanization of China remains at the current rate of development, the carbon emissions will continue to maintain high growth rate. In the end suggestions have been made on the policy to reduce carbon emissions in Hunan.