中文摘要：

土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。

英文摘要：

The seismic safety design of an earth-rock dam usually focuses on how to prevent its structure from collapsing,which makes the issue about how to control the structural damage of an earth-rock dam within an acceptable risk level,an important topic worth researching in the field of geotechnical engineering.By applying the theory of seismic risk analysis to practice,this paper witnesses the establishment of a method of seismic risk analysis particularly designed for earth-rock dams.The method explores the seismic risk from three aspects： the seismic hazard analysis,the seismic fragility analysis and the seismic loss assessment.On the basis of the site seismic risk analysis,the ideology of performance-based seismic design is successfully realized in the seismic fragility analysis of an earth-rock dam.The seismic damage level for an earth-rock dam is classified according to the specific condition of the relative settlement of the dam crest which serves as an evaluation index.Finally,with the help of seismic economic losses analysis,a seismic risk model for earth-rock dams is established,which can be used for evaluating the seismic damage risk of an earth-rock dam in terms of technology and economy.This paper also takes a high earth-rock dam for example to analyze and predict its seismic damages and economic losses in an earthquake,using the proposed model.The conclusion of such analysis and prediction can provide a valuable reference for safety evaluations of earth-rock dams and investment decisions,especially when an earth-rock dam is located in an area endangered by possible earthquakes.