中文摘要：

本文从房地产周期波动成分的非对称性以及统计学角度，分析了我国房地产综合模拟风险预警系统存在单指标波动均衡值与标准差估计有偏性的缺陷。在剖析缺陷存在的深层次原因的基础上，依据长期趋势理论以及置信度理论构建了相应模型，提出指标特征值改进思路。案例研究显示，改进思路能有效解决风险预警系统单指标无警域与现实之间的矛盾，有利于改善预警的精度。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the biasness drawbacks of single index＇ wave equilibrium value and standard deviation in China＇s real estate risk early-warning system. Based on the reason analysis, improving thoughts of index＇ eigenvalue are advanced in term of long-term trend theory and confidence interval theory. The case studies show ： improving thoughts may validly resolve the contradiction between normal early-warning interval and objective reality, which are benefit to improve the accurately degree of early-warning system.