中文摘要：

目的：建立卫生总费用、GDP、人口老龄化和政府预算卫生支出之间的误差修正模型，并基于该模型来判断变量间短期和长期因果关系。方法：运用协整理论。结论：实证分析表明，老龄化因素对我国卫生总费用增长有显著推动作用：1978-2004年间的医疗体制改革和政府预算卫生支出的相对降低导致了卫生总费用的增加。

英文摘要：

Objectives： The paper is to model total expenditure for public health using 1978-2004 data, to confirmed whether the existence of a stable long-run economic relationship or cointegration or not between total expenditure for public health and real GDP, population age distribution, number of practicing physicians, and Government Budgetary Expenditure and to investigated the the short-run linkage basing on Error Correction Mode. Method： Johansen and Juselius cointegration test. Conclusion： Empirical evidences show that the population age distribution is the principal determinant factor for total expenditure for public health in China.