中文摘要：

利用2002--2011年间中国苹果汁8个主要出口市场的面板数据，运用引力模型方法，分析了中国苹果汁出口金额的影响因素及其影响程度。结果表明：中国的GDP总量和出口国的GDP总量对中国苹果汁的出口具有显著的正向影响；金融危机的爆发对中国苹果汁出口具有显著负面影响；而8个主要出口市场中橙汁的价格波动对中国苹果汁出口的影响具有不确定性。此外，中国与主要出口国家间的贸易距离和人民币对美元汇率变化对中国苹果汁出口影响不显著。

英文摘要：

The main influence factors and influence degree of Chinese apple juice export market were studied with the panel data of mainly 8 trading partners in the past 10 years from 2002 to 2011 by the establishment of the gravity model. The results showed that China~s GDP and export countries＇ GDP had significant difference on apple juice export, the outbreak of the financial crisis had caused great negative impact on the export of Chinese apple juice,the main alternative to apple juice,orange juice in the consumer market, its price fluctuations on the impact on exports were uncertain. Distance between the two trade countries and RMB exchange rate against the dollar had no significant effects on the export of Chinese apple juice.