中文摘要：

In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel comprehensively optimized GM(1,1) model, also named COGM(1,1),based on the grey modeling mechanism. First, the relationship of the background value formula and its whitenization equation is analyzed and a new method optimizing background values is proposed to eliminate systemic errors in the modeling process.Second, the solving process of the new model is derived. For parameter estimation, a set of auxiliary parameters are used to change grey equation’s form. Then, original parameters are restored by an equations system. After solving the whitenization equation, initial value in time response function is established by least errors criteria. Finally, a numerical case and comparison with other grey prediction models are made to testify the new model’s effectiveness, and the computational results show that the COGM(1,1) model has a better property and achieves higher precision. The new model is used to forecast China energy consumption and production, and the ability of energy self-sufficiency is further analyzed. Results indicate that gaps between consumption and production in future are predicted to decline.

英文摘要：

In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel com- prehensively optimized GM（1,1） model, also named COGM（1,1）, based on the grey modeling mechanism. First, the relationship of the background value formula and its whitenization equation is analyzed and a new method optimizing background values is proposed to eliminate systemic errors in the modeling process. Second, the solving process of the new model is derived. For parameter estimation, a set of auxiliary parameters are used to change grey equation＇s form. Then, original parameters are re- stored by an equations system. After solving the whitenization equation, initial value in time response function is established by least errors criteria. Finally, a numerical case and comparison with other grey prediction models are made to testify the new model＇s effectiveness, and the computational results show that the COGM（1,1） model has a better property and achieves higher precision. The new model is used to forecast China energy con- sumption and production, and the ability of energy self-sufficiency is further analyzed. Results indicate that gaps between consump- tion and production in future are predicted to decline.