第三产业将取代第二产业成为中国未来经济增长的主力军,若将经济增长主体的观测样本放宽至第三产业(特别是考察金融业),那么,“资源诅咒”假说,则面临新的考验与挑战。该文以城市商业银行为例,基于中国61家城商行2004—2012年的非平衡面板数据,采用Logit模型、OLS模型实证分析了自然资源禀赋对城商行跨区经营的影响及其绩效。研究发现:自然资源禀赋(特别是环境资源)对城市商业银行而言是“诅咒”,而非“福音”。资源诅咒与污染天堂的双重悲剧,可能由金融市场过度扩张而撬开这个资源与环境经济学意义上的“潘多拉的盒子”,破解之匙或应在于推进金融自由化与利率市场化。
The third industry which takes place of the second industry is becoming the main driving force of china's economic growth. The existing of "resource curse" hypothesis is tested again by the financial data in this paper. Taking city commercial banks for example, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of natural resources on city commercial banks' cross operation and its performance through Logit model and OLS model. An unbalanced panel data of 61 hanks in china during 2004-2012 are used. We found that the natural resources, especially environmental resource, tend to be a curse for the city commercial banks. The key to settle down this problem may lie in improvement of the financial liberalization and the marketization of interest rate.