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近几十年来珠江三角洲1月和7月水位变异分析

ISSN号：1001-5221
期刊名称：热带地理
时间：2012
页码：233-240
分类：P933[天文地球—自然地理学] P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程;天文地球—测绘科学与技术]
作者机构：[1]国土资源部广州海洋地质调查局,广州510760, [2]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广州510275, [3]华南地区水循环与水安全广东省教育厅重点实验室,广州510275
相关基金：基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目（2010cB428405）;国家自然科学基金项目（41071020）
相关项目：变化环境下珠江流域地表水文过程演变及其对河流生态影响研究

关键词：珠江三角洲, 水文改变, 水位, 变异检测与识别, Hydrologic alteration, Water level, Change-point detection, Pearl River Delta

中文摘要：

以水动力学原理为基础，运用累积距平法、有序聚类分析法、滑动F识别与检验法和M—K趋势与突变分析法4种方法，对珠江三角洲1959--2005年47a的7月和1月水位时间序列进行突变点分析。结果表明：7月平均高水位的变异点集中在1974—1982年和1989—1995年两个时段，1月平均低水位的变异点集中在1970-1980年和1984—1993年两个时段，且大部分潮位站存在一个变异点，少数存在两个。人海口门站1月平均低水位和7月平均高水位序列变异点前，后的均值出现增加的特征，1月平均低水位巴值基本保持不变，7月平均高水位D值呈现增加的特征；在网河区1月平均低水位序列和7月平均高水位序列变异点前／后的均值和G值变化虽均较为显著，但趋势不一致。

英文摘要：

With the data of long-term series of mean low water level in January and mean high water level in July from 1956 to 2005 at eight tidal stations in the Pearl River Delta, cumulative departure analysis method, sequential clustering method, scanning F test and Mann-Kendall method were used to explore statistical features of the water level series. Each of those statistical methods has its own weak and strong points, however, comparison of the results from different statistical methods can well satisfy the requirements of reliability of research results. Application of more than one statistical technique in the study can well eliminate the uncertainty of the results by single statistical analysis method. The foregoing analysis and discussions produced the following important and interesting results and conclusions： generally, change points divided mean high water levels in July into two periods, from 1974 to 1982 and from 1989 to 1995; The change-points of mean low water level in January appeared from 1970 to 1980 and from 1984 to 1993. There was only one change-point at most of the stations, but there were two at some stations. This study detected change-points of the water level series and analyzed statistical properties of the water level sub-series posterior and anterior to the change points. The findings of this paper would be helpful for the management of the PRD and human mitigation to natural hazards under the changing environment.

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