中文摘要：

[Objective]The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin.[Method]Beijiang River basin as research object,SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin.Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter,while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify.Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios,SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin.[Result]Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high,and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin.Under the situation of invariable rainfall,temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased,and runoff depth decreased.When temperature unchanged,rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat.[Conclusion]The research could provide reference basis for water resource management in Beijiang River basin.

英文摘要：

[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin. Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high, and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situation of in- variable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature unchanged, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water re- source management in Beijiang River basin.