中文摘要：

基于可拓学物元理论，结合层次分析主观赋权法与灰色关联度客观赋权法，对评价因子进行组合赋权，避免单一赋权方法的片面性，建立泥石流危险性评价模型。影响泥石流危险性的因子有很多，通过现场实际调查，选取一次泥石流最大冲出量、发生频率、24h最大降雨量等8个因子对泥石流进行危险性评价。运用该模型对卡拉地区7条泥石流沟进行危险性评价，评价结果与实际情况相吻合，表明此方法可为泥石流危险性评价提供参考。

英文摘要：

Based on the method of extension theory, the weight of every factor is decided by the method of combination weighting, combined AHP method of objective weighting method with grey correlation of subjective weighting method and the model of debris flow hazard assessment is established,： in which the one - sidedness of the single weight method can be avoided. There are many factors influencing debris flow risk. By practical investigation, eight conventional evaluation - fac- tors, such as the maximum volume of a debris flow,the frequency , the maximum precipitation of 24 hours and so on, are chosen to evaluate the debris flow risk. The model is applied to access the hazard degree of seven debris flow gullies in Kala area. The evaluation result is in good agreement with the actual situation, demonstrating that the method can provide refer-ences for debris flow hazard assessment.