中文摘要：

应用NOAA气候预测中心提供的热带大气季节内振荡（MJO）客观业务指数及中国气象局上海台风研究所提供的西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）最佳路径资料集,定量统计检验了MJO对夏季西北太平洋TC活动的调制作用。结果表明：MJO对TC的生成、强度、路径和登陆活动都有显著的调节作用。当高空辐合中心位于120°E～160°E（MJO位相3～5）时,西北太平洋TC生成偏少,且生成位置偏北;而当高空辐合中心位于10°W～70°E（MJO位相8～10）时,西北太平洋TC生成偏多,且生成位置偏南;随着TC强度加强,能达到显著调节作用的MJO位相逐渐减少,当高空辐合辐散中心位于70°E（MJO位相10）时,对TC强度调制最显著。在路径调节方面,MJO位相1～4和10时,TC活跃于菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上,主要路径为西北偏北行,可能登陆华东、华北;而位相5～8时,TC主要活跃在菲律宾附近及以西到南海,以偏西行路径为主,可能登陆华南。MJO对登陆华南TC也有显著影响。该定量统计检验结果可为TC活动季节内预测提供依据。

英文摘要：

Using the Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） index provided by Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, and the tropical cyclone （TC） best track dataset over the western North Pacific （WNP） provided by Shanghai Institute of Typhoon of CMA, the quantified statistics of the modulation of MJO on tropical cyclone activity are performed. The results show that the genesis, intensity, landfall, and path of TCs are all modulated by MJO significantly. When the upper-air convergent center locates in 120°E-160°E （MJO phases 3-5）, there are less TCs form and the genesis position locates more north in the WNP; While the upper-air convergent center locates in 10°W-70°E（MJO phases 8-10）, more TCs form and the genesis position locates more southward. When the upper-air convergent center locates at 70°E, i.e., MJO phase 10, the intensity of TCs is significantly modulated; during phases 1-4 and 10, the vigorous TCs occur in the east of the Philippines of WNP, indicating the dominant northwestward and northward paths, possibly making landfall on the East and North China; while during the phases 5-8, the TCs occur frequently in the vicinity of the Philippines to the South China Sea, suggesting the dominant westward tracks and possible TC landfall on the south China. These statistical facts could be useful in the prediction of TC intraseasonal activity.