全球表面温度戏剧性地在过去的十年增加了。用适当途径评估如此的一个变化是批评的。为对变化的评价的以前的研究通常使用了温度系列的全面趋势(即基于最少平方的分析温度对年的简单线性回归倾斜) 为全部学习时期。然而,温度趋势在不同时期之中不同,即经常在温度系列有断点。因此,一个温度系列的全面线性趋势可以隐藏一些温度变化的时间的特征。为了精确描绘空气温度的时间、空间的模式,在中国变化,我们越过中国为 536 个气象学的车站分析在 19612004 的一年之间的年度吝啬的温度系列,用 piecewise 线性回归途径。我们在国内在学习时期期间在年度吝啬的温度发现了显著断点。年度吝啬的温度开始以 0.058 敢 ? 敤楬敶敲 ? 景的率在 1984 增加吗?
Global surface temporature has dramatically increased in the past decades. It is critical to evaluate such a change using appropriate approaches. The previous studies for assessment of the change usually used overall trends of temperature series (i.e. slopes of simple linear regression of temperature versus year based on a least-square analysis) for entire study period. Temperature trends, however, differ among different periods, i.e. there are often breakpoints in the temperature series. Therefore, the overall linear trend of a temperature series may conceal some of the temporal characteristics of the temperature change. To precisely characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of air temperature change in China, we analyze the annual mean temperature series between the year of 1961-2004 for 536 meteorological stations across China, using piecewise linear regression approach. We found remarkable breakpoints in the annual mean temperature during the study period across the country. The annual mean temperature started to increase in 1984 at a rate of 0.058℃/a at the country level. The year when wanning started appeared to be gradually later from the north to the south: temperature increased since the 1970s in the north (north of 40°N), and did not rise until the 1980s in most areas of the south (south of 40°N), with warming starting in 1983 in the Tibetan Plateau. The trends in annual mean temperatures showed a large spatial heterogeneity across China: a relatively small rising with a rate of 0.025-0.05℃/a in the Sichuan Basin, Central China and South China; the greatest increase in some parts of northwest China (i.e. Xinjiang) with up to a rate of 0,1℃/a; and rising at a rate of 〉0.05℃/a for most regions of the country. The feedbacks of cold waves and snow may be responsible for such regional differences in the timing and rates of warming in China.