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Regional differences in the timing of recent air warming during the past four decades in China
  • ISSN号:1005-0094
  • 期刊名称:《生物多样性》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P445.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]
  • 作者机构:[1]Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Climate Change Research Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China, [2]School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 相关基金:The authors are greatly indebted to anonymous reviewers for constructive comments. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (30721140306 and 90711002).
中文摘要:

全球表面温度戏剧性地在过去的十年增加了。用适当途径评估如此的一个变化是批评的。为对变化的评价的以前的研究通常使用了温度系列的全面趋势(即基于最少平方的分析温度对年的简单线性回归倾斜) 为全部学习时期。然而,温度趋势在不同时期之中不同,即经常在温度系列有断点。因此,一个温度系列的全面线性趋势可以隐藏一些温度变化的时间的特征。为了精确描绘空气温度的时间、空间的模式,在中国变化,我们越过中国为 536 个气象学的车站分析在 19612004 的一年之间的年度吝啬的温度系列,用 piecewise 线性回归途径。我们在国内在学习时期期间在年度吝啬的温度发现了显著断点。年度吝啬的温度开始以 0.058 敢 ? 敤楬敶敲 ? 景的率在 1984 增加吗?

英文摘要:

Global surface temporature has dramatically increased in the past decades. It is critical to evaluate such a change using appropriate approaches. The previous studies for assessment of the change usually used overall trends of temperature series (i.e. slopes of simple linear regression of temperature versus year based on a least-square analysis) for entire study period. Temperature trends, however, differ among different periods, i.e. there are often breakpoints in the temperature series. Therefore, the overall linear trend of a temperature series may conceal some of the temporal characteristics of the temperature change. To precisely characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of air temperature change in China, we analyze the annual mean temperature series between the year of 1961-2004 for 536 meteorological stations across China, using piecewise linear regression approach. We found remarkable breakpoints in the annual mean temperature during the study period across the country. The annual mean temperature started to increase in 1984 at a rate of 0.058℃/a at the country level. The year when wanning started appeared to be gradually later from the north to the south: temperature increased since the 1970s in the north (north of 40°N), and did not rise until the 1980s in most areas of the south (south of 40°N), with warming starting in 1983 in the Tibetan Plateau. The trends in annual mean temperatures showed a large spatial heterogeneity across China: a relatively small rising with a rate of 0.025-0.05℃/a in the Sichuan Basin, Central China and South China; the greatest increase in some parts of northwest China (i.e. Xinjiang) with up to a rate of 0,1℃/a; and rising at a rate of 〉0.05℃/a for most regions of the country. The feedbacks of cold waves and snow may be responsible for such regional differences in the timing and rates of warming in China.

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期刊信息
  • 《生物多样性》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院生物多样性委员会、中国植物学会、中国科学院植物研究所、中国科学院动物研究所、中国科学院微生物研究所
  • 主编:马克平
  • 地址:北京香山南辛村20号
  • 邮编:100093
  • 邮箱:biodiversity@ibcas.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-62836137
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1005-0094
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-3247/Q
  • 邮发代号:82-858
  • 获奖情况:
  • 2000年获中国科学院优秀期刊三等奖,2006年"中国百种杰出学术期刊"称号,2007年"中国百种杰出学术期刊"称号,2008年度中国精品科技期刊,2008年度"中国科协精品科技期刊工程"B类项目资助,2008年"第六届中国科协期刊优秀学术论文"
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,美国化学文摘(网络版),英国农业与生物科学研究中心文摘,美国生物科学数据库,英国动物学记录,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),瑞典开放获取期刊指南
  • 被引量:19480