中文摘要：

以动量轮为研究对象,提出一种基于D-S证据理论和Bayes理论的信息融合及寿命预测方法。首先,挖掘多个寿命信息源的内、外部信息作为Bayes多源验前信息,并构建证据集合;其次,利用合成规则对证据集合进行合成,得到合理的验前融合权重的分配结果;然后,利用Bayes方法求解寿命参数的融合验后分布,并计算寿命参数的估计值;最后,根据参数估计值预测设备的剩余寿命。仿真结果表明,基于多源寿命信息融合的预测结果与单一来源的寿命预测结果相比,更加接近于设备的真实寿命信息。

英文摘要：

An information fusion method was proposed based on D-S evidence theory and Bayes theory for lifetime prediction of important aerospace equipment, momentum wheel. Firstly, multi-source life information were collected and mined to obtain the prior distribution of the momentum wheel＇s lifetime, in order to build D-S evidence collections. Secondly, D-S combination rule was used to obtain reasonable weight allocation for prior distributions. After that, fusion posterior distribution was figured out and the values of life parameters were also estimated. Finally, according to parameters＇ estimation, the lifetime prediction for momentum wheel was derived. Simulation result shows that the prediction using the proposed method is closer to the real lifetime measurements.