中文摘要：

以往重现期的推求基本上是用单变量频率分析方法，无法考虑多因素下（如降水、径流变化）引起的联合变化，对水利工程的施工、水资源的规划以及防洪抗旱工作会造成一定影响。以Gumbel二维分布为基础，并以武江流域为例，对武江年降水量与犁市年径流量进行基于Gumbel分布的联合分析，推求出多因素影响下的联合概率分布与联合重现期，并对比单变量与多变量重现期之间的差异，为武江水利工程实施与水资源规划提供参考与借鉴。

英文摘要：

The univariate frequency distribution results derived from the traditional methods is unable to reflect the true frequency distri- bution under changing environments, which can affect the flood design projects and flood control to some degree. Based on the two - di- mensional Gumbel distribution, the joint and conditional frequency of runoff and rainfall were figured out with the two - dimension Gumbel mixed model in the WuJiang River Basin. The joint probability and joint return period under multi - factors were derived using the Gumbel Model, and then the differences between the univariate and multivariate return periods were compared. This study is helpful for the implementation of the water conservancy projects and water resources plans in the Wujiang River Basin.