中文摘要：

在分析电信行业中挽留激励效应、自然流失效应和口碑传播效应对客户保持率的动力学机理的基础上，得到客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径；接着提出了使用挽留激励系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体描述这3种效应的作用力。然后基于客户保持率的演进路径推导出了客户挽留周期模型和客户挽留价值模型。最后建立了2种不同类型的客户挽留模型：基于挽留激励效应建立了单个客户挽留费用模型，并推导出了单个客户挽留费用的有效范围、挽留激励的高效率区域和低效率区域；基于定义的挽留收益函数和挽留边际收益函数建立了一对一客户挽留策略模型，并推导出了在挽留预算限制条件下的客户挽留顺序选择原则。实验结果表明，所提出的电信客户挽留方法是可行且有效的。

英文摘要：

Firstly, after analyzing the dynamic mechanism of customer retention rate affected by the three most important effects which are the detainment excitation effect, the natural bleeding effect and the word-of- mouth effect, the evolution route of customer retention rate in customer detainment cycle is obtained; secondly, three coefficients influencing customer retention rate are proposed, which describe the effects above, inclu- ding detainment excitation coefficient, natural attenuation quotient and word-of-mouth influence coefficient; thirdly, customer detainment cycle model and customer detainment value model are gained based on the evolu- tion route of customer retention rate; finally, two models are established： the customer detainment cost com- putation model, in which the available range of the detainment cost, the high efficiency range of the detain- ment and the low efficiency range of the detainment are obtained; the one-to-one customer churn detainment model is established based on Detainment Profit Function and Detain Marginal Profit Function defined, and the selection rules of customer detainment order are deduced based on the limitation of detainment budget. The experiments results suggest that the customer churn detainment method put forward in this paper is feasible and very efficient.