我们以1994年至2009年我国资本市场筹资额、产业增加值等为样本,通过协整检验和灰色关联分析相结合的方法,来检验我国资本市场与产业结构升级之间的联系。研究发现,我国资本市场筹资率和产业结构升级率存在(1,1)阶协整关系,意味着资本市场筹资率和产业结构升级率之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系。灰色关联分析法结果表明,我国股票市场融资额与产业结构升级度的关联度最高,债券市场次之,银行中长期贷款市场最低,这说明以股权融资为代表的直接融资在我国产业结构升级过程中扮演着重要的角色。
By using the amount of the fund raised and the industrial added value in China's capital markets from 1994 to 2009 as the samples,this paper tests the relationship between the capital market and the industrial structure upgrade with the methods of co-integration test and gray correlation analysis.The results indicate that there exists a(1,1) order co-integration relationship between China's capital market fund raising rate and the rate of industrial structure upgrade,which means that there is a long-term stable equilibrant relationship between those two rates.The result of the gray correlation analysis shows that the relevance between the amount of China's stock market financing and the industrial structure upgrade has the highest degree,followed by the bond market,and the long-term bank loan market is the lowest.This indicates that the direct financing represented by equity financing plays an important role in the process of industrial structure upgrade.