中文摘要：

针对堆石坝坝面土工膜与垫层颗粒间接触状态存在较大的随机性和无序性的问题,结合土工膜材料力学强度与抗顶破、刺破能力之间的关系,建立了一种简化条件下计算土工膜发生局部顶破、刺破概率的方法,并分析了垫层颗粒不同粒径、不同压力与土工膜局部顶破、刺破概率之间的关系,同时以某面膜防渗堆石坝为例,给出了在土工膜整体受力变形条件下堆石坝面膜防渗结构安全概率的分布情况.分析结果表明：压力越大、颗粒粒径越大,土工膜发生顶破、刺破的可能性越高,并且由于局部土工膜所受到的不平衡力的方向的不确定性,所以土工膜发生顶破、刺破的概率与颗粒粒径和压力具有明显的两段函数关系.

英文摘要：

For the randomness and disordered issues of the contact status of earth-rock dam geomembrane and granular cushion, combined with the relationship between the mechanical strength of geomembrane and ability to resist bursting and piercing, a calculation method of probability of bursting and piercing in local geomembrane under simplified conditions is established. Also, this paper analyzed the relation between different granular size and pressures of granular cushion and bursting and piercing probability of local geomembrane. Considering a certain earth-rock dam with impermeable membrane as an example, this paper provided probability distribution of the safety of impermeable membrane structure under overall geomembrane force-deformation condition. The results show that:the greater the pressure, the larger the particle size, the higher the possibility of bursting and piercing of geomembrane, and due to the uncertain imbalance force direction of the local geomembrane, the mentioned relationship presents two functions.