中文摘要：

联合国里约20周年世界峰会的重要内容之一是倡导绿色经济。绿色经济的概念最早在1989年由英国环境经济学家Pearce提出,但现在的绿色经济却具有全新的意义。本文基于参加联合国有关绿色新政和绿色经济的政策咨询和研究报告,论述了绿色经济的基本背景、三重效益、研究模型以及绿色经济与生活质量的关系,对如何开展中国绿色经济研究进行探讨。首先,文章认为在深入探讨绿色经济前,需要了解当前发展绿色经济的基本背景,明确为什么要发展绿色经济、什么才是我们所需要的绿色经济,以及怎样促进绿色经济发展三个基本问题。其二,绿色经济与褐色经济的情景模拟表明,绿色经济发展模式具有更好的三重底线效益。联合国的T-21模型对过去40年（1970-2010）及未来40年（2010-2050）进行了绿色情景与褐色情景两种模拟,认为在自然资本的环境收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化得到了基本遏制,而褐色经济发展情景下自然资本的退化会进一步增强;在物质资本的经济收益方面,绿色经济发展情景下,2020年以前经济增长率（2.5%）会低于褐色经济（3%）,但从长期平均增长率看绿色经济发展模式（2.5%）可以带来比褐色经济发展模式（2%）更好的经济增长;在人力资本的社会效益方面,在2030年以前绿色经济发展情景下就业机会有小幅减少,但长期来看,绿色经济能够创造与褐色经济同样多的就业机会,甚至可以有小幅的增加（0.6%）。其三,绿色经济研究模型表明,绿色经济投资于自然资本可以实现所需要的经济社会发展与自然资本消耗的脱钩。绿色经济假说是：将资金投资于提高资源能源效率与扩大自然资本两个方面,是否能够导致更好的经济社会发展。基于该理论假设,联合国等国际组织将自然资本引入生产函数,建立了Threshold-21模型,证明绿色经济

英文摘要：

One of the themes of the 20th Anniversary of UN Rio Summit Conference to be held in June, 2012 is to advocate green economy. The concept of green economy was proposed as early as in 1989 by Pearce, a British environmental economist, but the present green economy has a completely new significance. The present paper, based on UN policy consultation and research reports on green new deals and green economy, expounds on the basic background, triple benefits, and research models of green economy as well as the relation between green economy and quality of life, and discusses how to deepen green economy studies in China. First, the paper considers that before making a further exploration of green economy, it is needed to know the background of developing green economy, and define the three basic questions： why to develop green economy, what is the green economy that we need and how to promote the development of green economy. Second, the scenario simulations of green economy and brown economy show： green economic development mode has a better triple bottom-line benefit. The UN T -21 model made two simulations of green scenario and brown scenario for the past 40 years （ 1970 - 2010 ） and the future 40 years （ 2010 - 2050 ）, believing that with regard to environmental profit of natural capital, in the scenario of green economic development, the retrogression of natural capital has been basically curbed, while in the scenario of brown economic development the retrogression of natural capital can be further intensified. With regard to the economic profit of material capital, in the scenario of green economic development, economic growth rate （2.5%）before 2020 will be lower than that of brown economy （3%）. In terms of the long-term economic growth rate, green economic development mode （2.5%） will be able to bring a better economic growth than the brown economic development mode （2%）. With regard to the social effect of human capital, in the green economic development scenario before 2030, employm